Showing posts with label Amy Myers Jaffe. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Amy Myers Jaffe. Show all posts

Sunday, November 24, 2013

美国能源泡沫——好事过多反成坏事?

1973年,美国对中东实施的石油禁运导致了能源紧缺。如今,40年过去了,美国正处于能源革命和前所未有的经济增长的顶峰时期。

这场革命背后有什么?新技术!



水平钻井及液压破裂(水力压裂)等重大成就让能源公司可以开采储量丰富的石油和天然气。一度被认为是绿色幻想的风能和太阳能最终也在经济上变得可行。公共事业重新构思了我们老旧的能源基础设施,让它变得更智能、更高效。

2020年之前,美国生产的石油将能满足消费的需求,进而减少对经常不稳定且因此变得不可预测的中东的依赖。

 “就在过去几年里,我们见证了从紧缺到丰富的转变”,哥伦比亚大学全球能源政策主任Jason Bordoff说道。“这对经济、地缘政治和环境将产生巨大的影响。”

美国从中获得好处是显而易见的。使用更便宜、全天然的燃气替代煤炭,能有效地减少碳排放,同时还能支持国内制造业。这意味着将本会流向海外的数十亿美元留在了美国境内,为将来的投资提供资本。

然而,能源的丰富也带来了一系列全新的挑战。环保人士抗议美国政府参与了利用水力压裂法开采石油和天然气的活动,经济学家也发出警告,提醒大家能源泡沫的存在——就像上世纪90年代的网络泡沫一样——随时都可能爆裂。

但是,存在泡沫的并不只是石油和天然气——太阳能和风能等可再生能源也在迅速增长。得益于美国政府对能源效率的重视,美国现在投入的资金收益是三十年前的两倍多,当时的经济规模仅为目前的三分之一!

去年,全球的温室气体水平再创新高,今年6月,国际能源署声称在本世纪末,温度上升的幅度将高达华氏9.5°——正如我们所知道的那样,这也差不多会是文明的终结。

加州大学戴维斯分校能源与可持续发展中心执行董事Amy Myers Jaffe表示“人们不能再依靠高油价和化石燃料的不足来推动气候议程了。形势已经发生了全面的变化。”

那么,对您来说,好事太多会反成坏事吗?美国正要找出其中的答案。



[ 能源革命, 美国能源泡沫, 能源紧缺, 美国能源, Amy Myers Jaffe, Jason Bordoff, 能源泡沫, NRGLab的公司, NRGLab 新技术, 所未有的经济增长, Ana shell, ana shell sh-box ]

Sunday, October 6, 2013

The U.S. energy bubble – too much of a good thing?

In 1973, the United States’ oil embargo on the Middle East resulted in an era of energy scarcity. Now, forty years later, the country is on the cusp of an energy revolution and an economic surge like never before.

What’s behind this revolution? New technology!



Breakthroughs like horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing (fracking) have allowed energy companies to tap into vast reserves of oil and natural gas. Wind and solar, once thought to be green fantasies, have finally become economically feasible. Public utilities are reimagining our obsolete energy infrastructure into something smarter and far more efficient.

By 2020, the U.S. could very well produce as much oil as it consumes, reducing the country’s dependence on an often unstable, and therefore unpredictable, Middle East.

“The transformation we’ve seen in just the last few years from an outlook of scarcity to one of abundance is real,” says Jason Bordoff, Director of Global Energy Policy at Columbia University. “It has huge economic, geopolitical and environmental implications.”

The benefits are obvious. By replacing coal with cheaper, all-natural gas, the U.S. has reduced carbon emissions despite bolstering domestic manufacturing. That means that billions of dollars that would have gone overseas are now staying at home, providing capital for future investments.

Yet energy abundance comes with a whole new set of challenges. Environmentalists have protested the government’s involvement in fracking for oil and gas, and economists have warned that the energy bubble – like the dot com bubble of the 90s – could burst at any time.

But the bubble isn’t just in oil and gas—renewables like solar and wind are growing rapidly. And thanks to the government’s focus on energy efficiency, the U.S. now gets twice as much “bang for its buck” than it did thirty years ago, when the economy was a third its current size!

Global greenhouse gas levels reached an all-time high last year, and in June, the International Energy Agency claimed that we were headed towards a temperature increase as high as 9.5°F by the end of the century – which would all but spell the end of civilization as we know it.

Amy Myers Jaffe, Executive Director of Energy and Sustainability at the University of California – Davis, says that “people can no longer rely on high oil prices and fossil-fuel scarcity to motivate a climate agenda. It completely changes the picture.”


So is too much of a good thing bad for you?  The U.S. is about to find out.

[ energy bubble, energy scarcity, energy revolution, hydraulic fracturing, Jason Bordoff, Columbia University, Amy Myers Jaffe, Ana Shell NRGLab, gasification nrglab, NRGlab, NRGLab Pte Ltd ]